Groundhog Day: Facts And Fictions

Do we brace ourselves for six more weeks of wintry weather or do we spring ahead this year?

Once again it's a battle between the North and South. Do we rely on Punxsutawney Phil or side with General Beauregard Lee? According to the top-hat and tuxedo wearing Punxsutawney Groundhog Club of Pennsylvania, our rodent-friend Phil saw his shadow today. Each year, thousands decend on this small Pennsylvania town of approximately 6,100 to celebrate what is essentially a German superstition. The tradition is that if a hibernating animal sees its shadow on February 2nd- the Christian holiday of Candlemas- winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow is seen, legend says, spring will come early.

General Beauregard Lee is Punxsutawney Phil's counterpart in Lilburn, Ga. Beau did not see his shadow on Saturday morning. MSN says "this marks the third year that the groundhogs have had different predictions. " However groundhog.org (the official site of punxsutawney phil) and Wikipedia both state that in 2007 they both predicted an early spring but differed in 2005 and 2006.

Apparently General Beauregard Lee is not the only groundhog who disagrees with forecaster Phil this year. Balzac Billy (Balzac Alberta), Jimmy the Groundhog (Sun Prarie WI), Sir Walter Wally (Raleigh NC), Wiarton Willie (Wiarton Ontario), Malverne Mel (Malvern NY), Shubenacadie Sam (Shubenacadie Nova Scotia), and Staten Island Chuck (NYC NY) all agree with the southern springseeker. West Indies Wilbur is the only other groundhog who predicts six more weeks of winter in 2008. All this lends me to the words of Hank Williams, Jr "If the South would have won, we'd of had it made!" No protest, just go with General Lee and Spring has sprung!

Groundhog Day proponents state that the rodents' forecasts are accurate 75% to 90%. According to the Canadian Encyclopedia, a study for 13 cities in the past 30 to 40 years puts success rate level at 37%. Also, the National Climatic Data Center reports that the overall predictions accuracy rate is around 39% (petloveshack.com).

The groundhog itself is a member of the rodent family Sciuridae, belonging to the group of large ground squirrels. It seems the earliest account of Groundhog Day in America can be found at the Historical Society of Berks County in Reading Pennsylvania. The first reference was made in storekeeper Jame Morris' diary on February 4,1841. It has been claimed that Groundhog Day is a widely celebrated event in Middlesbrough, England since the turn of the millennium and continues to grow within the surrounding area. This however seems rather unlikely given that groundhogs are limited to North America (Mammal Species of the World, Wilson&Reeder).

In the United States the tradition derives from a Scottish poem:
As the light grows longer
The cold grows stronger
If Candlemas be fair and bright
Winter will have another flight
If Candlemas be cloud and snow
Winter will be gone and not come again
A farmer should on Candlemas day
Have half his corn and half his hay
On Candlemas day if thorns hang a drop
You can be sure of a good pea crop

It will be interesting to see which groundhog is right this year. Southerness aside, my personal hope lies with Beau as I'm anxious to see our beautiful Spring. However, if Phil is the one who is correct, I'll have another six weeks to diet & exercise before I even have to think of putting on a swimsuit. I guess either way, according to legend, it's a Win-Win(ter) situation :)